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El año 2019 comenzó con incertidumbre respecto a la verdadera situación del equilibrio de las finanzas públicas, y de cómo dicha situación influenciaría en la política económica que adoptaría el gobierno. Tanto en materia fiscal, como en materia de otras reformas que constantemente se han solicitado desde el sector productivo -especialmente en lo referente a la contratación laboral-, y finalmente, la posición de compromiso que podría adoptar el gobierno para corregir algunos desequilibrios fiscales originados en importantes egresos no controlados, entre ellos altos salarios en el sector público y el pago de subsidios a combustibles para sectores que o no lo necesitan o que incluso lo destinan para actividades de contrabando.
Ciertamente durante 2019 acontecieron algunas situaciones que deberían haber favorecido al ambiente de negocios e inversiones del país tanto en el corto como en el largo plazo. Entre estas situaciones se tienen al acercamiento de Ecuador a la Alianza del Pacífico, las conversaciones mantenidas con el gobierno mexicano para la posible celebración de un Acuerdo Comercial con dicho país, constituirse en sede de la Asamblea de Gobernadores del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (más los convenios de financiamiento entre BID y el sector privado, que se celebraron durante la realización de este evento), además de las conversaciones mantenidas con el Fondo Monetario Internacional y otros multilaterales, orientándose a definir fuentes de financiamiento inmediatas para el país.
Aunque es difícil evaluar la efectividad de la planificación y ejecución de la política económica del Gobierno durante el último año, lo cierto es que las cifras con las que se empieza 2020 no resultan muy alentadoras: entre enero y noviembre de 2019, el total de ventas (ventas locales más exportaciones) de la economía no petrolera sumó USD 163.189 millones, lo que representó apenas USD 5 millones más que lo reportado en el mismo período de 2018, es decir un crecimiento prácticamente nulo (+0,003%). Ver gráfico No. 1
Uno de los sectores para los cuales 2019 generó un verdadero resultado desfavorable es el de la construcción, cuyas ventas totales entre enero y noviembre de 2019 se contrajeron en USD 673 millones, lo que representó una contracción de 14% respecto al mismo período del año previo. Por otro lado, se tiene la situación del sector comercial, cuyas ventas apenas se incrementaron en 1%; pero de mayor cuidado resulta lo ocurrido con el desempeño de la industria manufacturera no petrolera, que pese a su contracción de 5% en ventas, deja como pérdida en ventas un importante monto (- USD 1.271 millones) para la economía ecuatoriana. Ver cuadro No. 1
Aunque en los resultados finales de 2019 será necesario contabilizar el impacto de las pérdidas que se generaron por las paralizaciones de octubre, que incluso tiene su influencia en el horizonte de la planificación de la política económica del Gobierno; es necesario reconocer que incluso hacia finales del primer semestre de 2019 se evidenciaban señales de una tendencia a la baja en las ventas del total de la economía no petrolera.
En lo que a ventas se refiere, durante octubre de 2019 se registró una contracción de 8% respecto a lo reportado en octubre de 2018. Cabe señalar que en septiembre, se había registrado una contracción similar (-9%, t/t-12).
A breves rasgos, lo anterior no refleja claramente el impacto de lo ocurrido durante las paralizaciones, pero si se evalúa puntualmente el desempeño de la actividad manufacturera no petrolera, se observa que en el mes de octubre de 2019 las ventas de este sector cayeron en 10% respecto a lo facturado en octubre-2018, mientras que en el acumulado enero-septiembre 2019 versus enero-septiembre 2018 la caída en ventas era del 4%. Esto refleja lo sensible que se tornó el proceso de paralizaciones para el mayor sector económico de Ecuador (la manufactura no petrolera, responsable del 12% del Producto Interno Bruto PIB de nuestro país), situación que incluso impactó en los resultados de noviembre, mes en el que las ventas de este sector resultaron inferiores en 5% respecto a lo registrado en el mismo mes de 2018. Ver gráficos No. 2 y 3.
Visto por ramas de la manufactura, se evidencia que el desempeño a la baja en ventas es prácticamente generalizado a nivel de las diferentes ramas industriales, situación que es comprensible si se consideran los amplios encadenamientos que existen en la economía ecuatoriana. Entre los sectores que mayormente vieron reducidos sus niveles de facturación se tienen al de fabricación de vehículos automotores, con una caída de 30% en las ventas del período enero-noviembre 2019 versus mismo período de 2018, seguido por la rama de elaboración de aceites y grasas de origen vegetal y animal (-13%), y la rama de elaboración de bebidas (-8%).
En contraste a estos resultados negativos, se tienen a los obtenidos por la rama de elaboración de alimentos preparados animales, cuyas ventas se incrementaron en 13% (resultado comprensible si se considera la producción de alimento balanceado para camarón, una de las actividades que ha logrado mantenerse al alza); la rama de elaboración de productos de molinería y almidones (+3%), entre otros. Ver cuadro No. 2
Otras variables a considerar
Durante 2019 varios indicadores mostraron un comportamiento atípico e incluso algunos mostraron un comportamiento claramente negativo. Por un lado, los precios de manera generalizada tendieron a mantenerse estáticos (aunque para algunos rubros de bienes y servicios la variación fue negativa), mientras que los indicadores macroeconómicos de inversión resultaron negativos (principalmente por una cada vez menor participación del sector público en la Formación Bruta de Capital Fijo), además de indicadores laborales prácticamente estancados.
Por supuesto, lo previamente expuesto finalmente se ve reflejado en los indicadores de crecimiento de la economía, teniéndose que entre enero y septiembre de 2019 la economía ecuatoriana creció apenas en 0,6% respecto al mismo período de 2018.
En lo que respecta de manera puntual al principal componente del PIB ecuatoriano, el consumo de los hogares, este presentó un incremento moderado de 1,8%, y aunque este componente ha logrado mantener un ritmo muy moderado de crecimiento, es necesario observar que el estancamiento laboral que se ha manifestado en los últimos años podría impactar significativamente sobre la capacidad de gasto y consumo de los hogares. Ver cuadro No. 3 y gráfico No. 4
Lo que se viene
El 2019 se cerró con la aprobación de una Ley que mantiene un espíritu recaudador que apunta principalmente a garantizar ciertos flujos, en el corto plazo, para el Presupuesto General del Estado (la denominada Ley Orgánica de Simplicidad y Progresividad Tributaria). Además, con una Ley pendiente de aprobación y que tiene potencial de incidir en los resultados de la actividad productiva como lo es la Ley Orgánica de Emprendimiento e Innovación, y con varios temas por resolverse a través del orden jurídico, entre ellos la posición fiscal respecto al pago de subsidios al combustible y las tan necesarias reformas laborales.
El presidente Lenín Moreno ha anunciado estar de acuerdo en apoyar un régimen laboral de trabajo por hora, siempre y cuando se cumpla con lo establecido en Ley y no se provoque precarización laboral, además de manifestar que el trabajo por hora es una práctica utilizada que ha funcionado en otros países[i]. Pese a estos anuncios, lo cierto es que todavía no existe una auténtica certeza sobre el contenido y alcance de las posibles reformas laborales, e incluso de la urgencia con las que sean tratadas, ya que según declaraciones de Andrés Madero, Ministro de Trabajo, la reforma laboral ha sido consensuada ya entre varios sectores y actores sociales, pero el envío de la misma a la Asamblea se encuentra en manos del Presidente [ii].
Es altamente importante enfatizar en la necesidad de reformas laborales que faciliten una mayor contratación, ya no solo porque el desempleo y la subocupación son problemáticas sociales que deben resolverse para garantizar el bienestar social; sino también porque se corre el riesgo de generar algunas distorsiones que se tornen estructurales, entre ellas una menor competitividad de la producción de bienes y servicios a nivel país, de manera que resulte cada vez más complejo colocar dichos bienes y servicios en mercados internacionales, pero a su vez generando similar dificultad en el mercado local ya que la capacidad de consumo de los hogares ecuatorianos se encuentra estancada.
Aunque lo anterior suene similar a evaluaciones realizadas en el pasado, lo cierto es que es una realidad innegable que se ve incluso reflejada en las cifras oficiales:
a) por un lado, según las estadísticas del Banco Central del Ecuador, entre enero y noviembre de 2019 las exportaciones no petroleras totales crecieron en 5,8% respecto al mismo período de 2018, pero si se consideran únicamente las exportaciones industrializadas no petroleras, las mismas decrecieron en 4,3%. Incluso, si se consideran las exportaciones no petroleras hacia la Unión Europea, bloque con el cual mantenemos un Acuerdo Comercial desde 2017, se obtiene un resultado de -5,4% en términos del valor FOB de lo exportado, y de -11,0% en términos de las toneladas exportadas,
b) por otro lado, entre enero y noviembre de 2019 las importaciones no petroleras presentaron un comportamiento realmente atípico y propio de un ciclo de recesión, ya que se contrajeron en 2,5% respecto al mismo período de 2018. Este resultado obedece prácticamente a un comportamiento generalizado para diversos sectores de la economía, ya que por ejemplo se tiene una caída de las importaciones de materias primas en el orden del 6,7% (-8,6% si se consideran únicamente materias primas para la industria), pero incluso las importaciones de bienes de consumo registraron una contracción de 2,4%. Ver cuadros No. 4 y 5.
Aunque el entorno económico actual presenta varios desafíos y amenazas, es necesario enfocarse también en ciertos elementos que pueden contribuir a mejorar los resultados incluso en el corto plazo. Desde los gobiernos seccionales se ha comenzado a prestar una mayor atención a la actividad emprendedora en sus diferentes facetas, y aunque una amplia cantidad de estos negocios tienden a desaparecer en el largo plazo, hay que centrar la atención en los impactos significativos que estos generan en el corto plazo, especialmente en lo que a generación de empleo concierne, situación que incluso resalta nuevamente la necesidad de reformas laborales que podrían mejorar la posición financiera de estos emprendimientos y asegurar un mayor tiempo de existencia o incluso garantizar se tornen sostenibles, además de la generación de plazas de empleo que se proyecten al largo plazo.
En esta línea, resulta válido destacar iniciativas como la de ÉPICO, la Empresa Pública Municipal para la Gestión de Innovación y Competitividad en Guayaquil, cuyo trabajo se centra en los ejes de innovación, emprendimiento y competitividad. Lo interesante de esta iniciativa es que en su directiva participan funcionarios municipales, representantes de la academia y del sector privado.
En este entorno de incertidumbre, en 2019 varias empresas incursionaron en programas de desarrollo de proveedores y colaboradores, entre los que se tienen no solamente programas de financiamiento a proveedores de materias primas sino también a programas de capacitación de otros actores a lo largo de la cadena, como lo son las tiendas de barrio, farmacias y otros puntos de distribución. Dado el entorno económico actual, es importante que en este nuevo año se mantenga en la agenda empresarial la construcción de herramientas que contribuyan de una u otra forma a apuntalar la competitividad a nivel de procesos, ya sea a nivel de la cadena de abastecimiento o la de distribución, claro, esto mientras se logre certeza de la orientación de la política económica que adopte el Gobierno.
Resumen de los principales aspectos para la actividad productiva de la Ley Orgánica de Simplificación y Progresividad Tributaria
Aspectos favorables:
- Se amplían sectores considerados como prioritarios (y por ende sujetos a exoneración de pago IR para el desarrollo de inversiones nuevas y productivas). Se incluyen: servicios de infraestructura hospitalaria, servicios educativos, servicios culturales y artísticos.
- Nuevo régimen de impuesto único para actividad bananera (y de otras musáceas), para: 1) producción y venta local de banano producido o no por el mismo sujeto pasivo (se incorpora a no productores), 2) exportación de banano producido o no por el mismo sujeto pasivo (3% sobre utilidad bruta (precio de comercialización – costo a precio de sustentación)
- Los ingresos provenientes de actividades agropecuarias en la etapa de producción y/o comercialización local o que se exporten, podrán acogerse a un impuesto a la renta único, según tabla. Se incluye la producción y cultivo de palma aceitera.
- Eliminación de obligatoriedad de pago de anticipo del IR. El pago de un anticipo podrá ser voluntario, y no obedece al esquema de cálculo hoy vigente (será equivalente al 50% de IR causado, menos retenciones en la fuente, de ejercicio fiscal previo).
- Establecimiento de criterios para contribuyentes que podrán ejercer como agentes de retención del IR (criterios a establecerse en Reglamento). Se reduce número de agentes de retención.
- Se incrementa lista de productos sujetos a tarifa IVA 0% en sus transferencias o importaciones: a) flores, follajes y ramas cortadas, en estado fresco, tinturadas y preservadas; b) tractores de llantas de hasta 300 HP para todo tipo de producción agrícola; c) tiras reactivas para medición de glucosa, bombas de insulina, marcapasos, glucómetros, lancetas; d) papel periódico; e) embarcaciones, maquinaria, equipos de navegación y materiales para el sector pesquero artesanal; f) servicio de carga eléctrica destinado para vehículos 100% eléctricos.
- Aclaratoria de domicilio fiscal efectivo para cobros de impuestos por patentes municipales y metropolitanas, y del 1,5 por mil sobre los activos totales (se aclara que se entienden como sucursales, agencias o establecimientos permanentes a lo que conste en los registros del RUC).
- Se crea régimen de devolución simplificada unificada para exportadores, que consiste en un procedimiento simplificado de devolución de tributos al comercio exterior, excepto del IVA que cuenta actualmente con su propio régimen. Devolución se implementaría a través de notas de crédito emitidas por SENAE.
Aspectos negativos:
- Se elimina la calidad de ingreso exento de IR los obtenidos por dividendos y utilidades distribuidos a sociedades extranjeras y a personas naturales no residentes en Ecuador. La capitalización de utilidades no será considerada como distribución de dividendos.
- Se incluye como ingreso gravado (para pago de impuesto a la renta) a las provisiones que se hicieron por las jubilaciones patronales y que no se hayan efectivamente pagado a favor de los beneficiarios de dicha provisión.
- Se fija un límite para aplicar la deducción de intereses “netos” en operaciones con partes relacionadas, que no deberá ser mayor al 20% de la utilidad operacional.
- Se aumenta el margen de comercialización en la base imponible del ICE (pasa del 25% al 30%).
- Se eliminan a aguas minerales y jugos naturales (contenido natural de azúcar superior al 50%) de los productos exentos de ICE.
- Se amplían productos gravados con ICE: a) Tabaco para cigarrillos electrónicos (150%), b) Energizantes con contenido de azúcar mayor a 25 gramos por litro de bebida (USD 0,18 por cada 100 gramos de azúcar añadida), c) Servicios no prepago de telefonía móvil avanzada para personas naturales (10%), d) Fundas plásticas (USD 0,10 por funda) [Temporalidad para fundas plásticas: Año 2020 (USD 0,04), año 2021 (USD 0,06), año 2022 (USD 0,08)].
- Se sube la tarifa específica de ICE para la cerveza industrial (en todas las escalas +10%) y se mantiene discriminación por participación de mercado.
- Se crea, temporalmente, “contribución” sobre los ingresos gravados del ejercicio 2018 (incluidos ingresos considerados en regímenes de impuesto único), para las sociedades que en dicho ejercicio hayan reportado ingresos gravables iguales o superiores a USD 1 millón. El pago por este impuesto no podrá ser superior al 25% del IR causado en 2018. Se deberá cancelar durante 2020, 2021 y 2022. La contribución no podrá ser utilizada como crédito tributario ni como gasto deducible en 2020, 2021 y 2022.
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