Por:
María Isabel Salvatierra
El inicio del 2020 no ha sido tan productivo para el Ecuador. Aunque en los primeros días del año el precio del barril de petróleo empezó alto (por el conflicto entre Estados Unidos e Irán), y había algunas proyecciones de que eso ayude a cubrir déficit fiscal del gobierno, la situación se estabilizó muy pronto, y los recursos petroleros adicionales fueron breves. La situación petrolera empeoró con el paso de las semanas, y a inicios de marzo, el precio del barril de petróleo WTI se encuentra en un valor por debajo de lo que se estableció en la Proforma del Presupuesto General del Estado 2020. Al mismo tiempo, el Riesgo País ha aumentado hasta bordear los 1400 puntos; todo ello por el tema coronavirus, que además de efectos sanitarios, nos está dejando fuertes efectos económicos.
Sin embrago, pese a todas las dificultades que está acarreando el Ecuador, la llegada de la noticia de un posible acuerdo comercial con Estados Unidos ha generado grandes expectativas de crecimiento económico para el país. Las conversaciones que se han mantenido para firmar un acuerdo bilateral se ven con buenos ojos entre ambas partes. Sin duda alguna, esta ha sido una buena noticia para el país.
Beneficios de un posible acuerdo con Estados Unidos
Desde que se firmó en el 2017 el Acuerdo Multipartes con la Unión Europea, no se había vuelto a escuchar en el Ecuador un acuerdo comercial que genere tantas oportunidades de crecimiento, a excepción de la posible adhesión que se está tramitando aún hacia el bloque de la Alianza del Pacífico. Estados Unidos es nuestro principal socio comercial en la actualidad. Según datos del Banco Central del Ecuador las exportaciones con el país norteamericano representan el 30% del nuestro total; mientras que en las importaciones representan el 23% de lo que compramos. Por estos motivos, tener un mejor modelo de comercio exterior con EE.UU será de vital importancia para la economía ecuatoriana.
Hay que tomar en cuenta que un acuerdo de esta magnitud trae muchos beneficios, no solo ayuda a que el mercado exterior se dinamice, muchos sectores y actividades económicas que forman parte de la cadena productiva son beneficiarios indirectos. Por ejemplo, si se concreta el acuerdo, el empleo se incentivaría por la expansión de nuevos mercados, las empresas tendrían que contratar a más personas para poder operar y vender aún más. También la Inversión Extranjera Directa ganaría a partir de esto. Cabe mencionar, que el sector turismo, educación y seguridad son temas que también se están analizando en la negociación.
Del mismo modo, nuestra industria interna se mejoraría. El tener mejor acceso a materia prima y bienes de capital ayudaría a que los empresarios se planteen invertir y actualizar sus procesos. Esto generaría una reacción en cadena, se optimizaría tiempo y costos, se innovaría, se crearían nuevos productos agroindustriales. Tener una economía diversificada y exportadora nos protege ante las dinámicas del mercado internacional. Hay que apuntar seriamente hacia la diversificación y dejar de a poco las exportaciones de commodities. Somos un país rico en flora y fauna, si le agregamos creatividad e ingenio, se podría generar más productos agroindustriales con valor agregado que ayuden al crecimiento. El desafío supone para Ecuador incorporar cierto grado de diferenciación que les permita a sus productos ingresar en mercados más exigentes y especializados. De esta forma, se generaría mayor riqueza no solo para el sector empresarial, sino para todo el país.
Contexto Global
Ecuador ha perdido importantes oportunidades en las dos últimas décadas en cuanto a la búsqueda de acuerdos comerciales grandes. Por ejemplo, la Alianza del Pacífico, una iniciativa de integración regional creada en el 2011 en la que Ecuador fue invitado a participar junto con cuatro países más (Chile, Colombia, México y Perú), pero que lastimosamente se dejó pasar, y actualmente el gobierno está haciendo todo lo posible para poder adherirnos. Aun no se concreta nada, pero las negociaciones están yendo de manera positiva. Otro ejemplo claro es el acuerdo que se firmó con la Unión Europea: el país inició las negociaciones en el 2007 junto con Colombia, Perú y Bolivia, pero en el 2009 dejó el proceso y lo retomó individualmente en 2014. Ya para el 2017 se concretó para Ecuador, pero ya nuestros países vecinos lo habían hecho varios años atrás. El tema con Estados Unidos viene en un contexto igual, en donde otra vez nos han llevado la delantera algunos países sudamericanos como: Chile, que firmó un acuerdo con EE.UU de tipo TLC (Tratado de Libre Comercio) en el 2004; Perú, que igualmente tiene un acuerdo de libre comercio desde el 2009; y Colombia, otro país con TLC desde 2012.
Ahora lo importante es analizar el presente, debemos aprender de los errores y mejorar nuestros intercambios comerciales. El gran objetivo es EE.UU, en unos meses el Gobierno se reunirá de nuevo con este país para profundizar más los lazos de cooperación.
¿Cómo avanza la relación Ecuador-EEUU?
En estos instantes, el Ecuador está negociando con EE.UU un sistema preferencial para las exportaciones de las rosas, el brócoli, las alcachofas y el atún. Este sistema tendría como propósito el mejorar las condiciones que permitan competir de igual frente a empresas de Colombia y Perú; países que muestran las mismas características exportables que nosotros, pero que poseen mejores ventajas arancelarias.
Por otra parte, se busca firmar un acuerdo a largo plazo bajo un esquema de integración en donde no solo se incluya lo comercial, sino también, las inversiones, seguridad, corrupción, emprendimiento, e innovación. El Ecuador plantearía un acuerdo parecido al que se firmó con la Unión Europea, en donde el sistema de desgravación de los aranceles para las importaciones se dé paulatinamente con los años para mitigar su impacto en determinadas industrias ecuatorianas.
Rol del Sector Público y Sector Privado
Si queremos conseguir una mejor economía se necesita principalmente de iniciativas del sector privado, pero también de predisposición gubernamental. Se debe focalizar mayor inversión hacia estos sectores productivos en lo que corresponde a infraestructura, brindar acceso a créditos, alianzas público-privadas, políticas públicas que supongan la eliminación de trabas comerciales, y avanzar en la supresión de aranceles.
Necesitamos menos política, menos conflictos, y más economía. Ecuador puede levantarse. Trabajemos en equipo, apoyemos los acuerdos comerciales, y aprovechemos para invertir y generar empleo ¡Gobierno facilitando, y sector privado ejecutando!.
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