Por:
Walter Spurrier Baquerizo.
ASESOR ECONÓMICO CIG.
Se inicia el sexto año del ajuste que siguió a la gran bonanza de los diez años anteriores generada por los alucinantes precios del petróleo y al agresivo endeudamiento externo. Desde 2015, la economía busca adaptarse a las nuevas realidades: que el precio del petróleo retorna a niveles moderados, y que la deuda externa es cara y escasa.
Los dos principales ajustes que debe realizar la economía son:
-Revertir la situación fiscal, para que en lugar de requerir crédito para alimentar la burocracia, tengamos ahorro y vayamos reduciendo el endeudamiento;
-Abaratar costos de producción, puesto que la década de fiesta deja al Ecuador como país caro, y la dolarización no permite licuar costos via devaluación.
Ajuste en España
Cinco años es lo que duró la crisis y ajuste en España. Entre 2009 y 2013 la economía española se contrajo -11% en términos per capita, pero desde entonces tiene un buen ritmo de crecimiento.
España no tiene moneda propia, aunque si compartida: El Banco Central Europeo tiene que tomar en cuenta las necesidades de todos los países que tienen el euro, a diferencia del Fed estadounidense para quien no cuentan Panama, El Salvador o Ecuador. Pero la comparación con nuestro país es válida, porque España debió ajustarse sin devaluar.
La contracción en España contribuyó a la caída de precios internos y la recuperación de la competividad.
Ajuste “Light“
En Ecuador, el ajuste ha sido mucho más atenuado: en los cinco años la economía se contrajo -5% per capita. Pero estmos lejos de terminar el ajuste. La más reciente proyección de crecimiento para 2020 es de la Cepal, 0,1%. De cumplirse, en seis años la economía se habría contraido -6.3% per capita.
La falta de ajuste decisivo lo hace más llevadero, pero pospone la solución a la crisis. Grecia, como España integrante de la eurozona, ya superó su pavorosa crisis, pero le tomó diez años.
Escenario Realista
El escenario más realista que tenemos es que en 2020, el gobierno de Lenin Moreno haga lo necesario para el el Fondo Monetario siga apoyando el programa económico. El Fondo se ha mostrado muy comprensivo con el gobierno, y ha pospuesto para este año parte del ajuste previsto para 2019.
Previsiones
Por lo que para este año, debemos esperar:
No Inflación
Nuevamente inflación negativa o al menos mínima; casi cero de inflación. Los altos precios internos, con la mayor apertura internacional –los precios de los productos europeos bajan cada año- significa que lo importado o de componente importado no sube de precio. Mientras, la no expansión del gasto público mantiene limitado el crecimiento del consumo de hogares, lo que desalienta el aumento de precios de los servicios.
Alza de Gasolina
Un alza de precios de la gasolina Extra/Ecopaís, quizá limitada a las ciudades, o de alguna manera tratando de evitar que afecte a los vehículos propiedad de los indígenas, y no dar pretexto para otro levantamiento. El alza sería fuerte, ya que con el aumento de la Súper, como era de esperar, al gobierno le salió el tiro por la culata ya que muchos usuarios de la Super se pasaron a las gasolinas con subsidio.
Concesión Sopladora
Se lograría concesionar la central hidroeléctrica Sopladora, lo que se ofreció para 2019 pero no se logró hacer. Hay empresass interesadas, y el proceso de avalúo ya está en marcha. Se pretende haer igual con CNT; si no se lo logra en 2020, quizá en 2021. En ambos casos, se espera un pago de entrada de cerca de USD1 mil millones.
Tibia Reducción Gasto
Habría un avance tibio en reducir el rol de pagos de la administración pública. Esa es la tarea más urgente, pero las autoridades se han mostrado renuentes a dejar sin renovar el grueso de los contratos por tiempo fijo que dejó Correa.
Más Acuerdos Comerciales
Está en marcha una estrategia para conseguir mejor acceso a los mercados para los productos nacionales. El Ecuador pasaría a ser el quinto integrante de la Alianza del Pacífico, con lo que se consolida la línea del Pacífico de Sud América, más Mexico. Esto requiere profundizar el acuerdo con México.
Algún avance importante habrá con los EE.UU. Es nuestro principal mercado, pero nuestras exportaciones están perdiendo participación de mercado. Habrá un nuevo embajador cuya tarea será sobre todo de naturaleza comercial. Los EE.UU. tiene la mejor disposición con el Ecuador, en particular desde que Ecuadsr permite vuelos de vigilancia del narcotráfico desde las Galápagos.
Impulso Minería Metálica
Con un mercado interno estancado, y costos muy altos de producción para las exportaciones, las autoridades rescatan que un sector listo para el crecimiento explosivo es el de la minería metálica, por lo que es de esperar que deje de haber dilatorias a las autorizaciones para que las mineras con concesiones puedan iniciar la inversión. Las exportaciones de Fruta del Norte y Mirador empezaron a fines de 2019 y alcanzarán unos USD900 millones este año. Como ya se exportan unos USD250 millones de oro proviniente de Portovelo, Zaruma y Ponce Enriquez, los metales pasarían a ser el cuarto rubro de exportación no petrolera, después de camarón, banano y conservas de atún.
Modernización bancaria
El Acuerdo con el Fondo incluye una reforma profunda al Código Monetario para alinearlo con Basilea III, que es la norma bsncaria internacional vigente desde 2010.
Mercado de Valores
Una asesoría del Departamento del Tesoro de los EE.UU. recomienda lo que hay que hacer para que se dinamice el mercado de valores. Habrá un proyecto de ley de reformas radicales a la ley de mercado de labores.
¿Reforma Laboral?
La mas importante reforma para que la economía recupere competividad, es la reducción de la rigidez del mercado laboral. Esta reformas genera oposición de las centrales sindicales. Probablemente habría cierta resistencia en la Asamblea. Por lo que hay la posibilidad que el gobierno se inhiba de proponerla.
2021
El ajuste no se completará en 2020. Quedará harta tela por cortar para el próximo gobierno. Por lo que 2021 tampoco se perfila como año en que Ecuador retoma la senda de crecimiento.
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