Marco Ibarra
Vicepresidente de Comercio Exterior CIG
La crisis económica que atraviesa el Ecuador se refleja también en el comercio exterior, antes del COVID-19 ya las exportaciones crecían poco, mientras las importaciones caían. Con la imposición de la cuarentena por la emergencia sanitaria, el comercio en general se deteriora, pero con una mayor incidencia en las compras y ventas al exterior que realiza la industria manufacturera. En este artículo se revisa brevemente el desempeño del comercio exterior acumulado hasta mayo de este año y el acumulado durante los meses de marzo a mayo.
- Exportaciones
En 2020 las exportaciones totales reportadas hasta mayo cayeron 14,7%, arrastradas por la caída de 51,1% de las exportaciones petroleras, en tanto que las no petroleras crecieron 9,9%. A su vez el crecimiento de las exportaciones no petroleras se sustenta en las exportaciones primarias que crecieron 16,8% mientras que las exportaciones industrializadas no petroleras cayeron 9,3%.
Si se compara el desempeño de las exportaciones durante los meses de la emergencia (marzo a mayo) contra el mismo periodo de 2019, la caída de las exportaciones prácticamente fue el doble, pues cayeron 30,2%, las petroleras disminuyeron 73,5%, en tanto que las no petroleras crecieron 1,5%.
El leve crecimiento de las exportaciones no petroleras se sustenta en las exportaciones de productos primarios que mantuvieron el crecimiento aunque solo de 8,4% en cambio la caída de los productos manufacturados fue 17,6%. Cuadro No.1
Entre las principales exportaciones de productos primarios no petroleros, en el periodo de emergencia de marzo a mayo, comparado con el mismo periodo de 2019, las de banano mantuvieron un crecimiento de 12,1%, las de camarón 2,1%, cacao 26,2%, madera 51,9%; cayeron las de flores 1,6% y las de pescado 7,6%; y, las de los demás en conjunto crecieron 21,9%. Cuadro No.2.
Las exportaciones de productos industrializados no petroleros fueron muy afectadas durante la emergencia; comparadas contra los mismos meses de 2019, con excepción de las de elaborados de cacao que se incrementaron 6,6%, todas las de los principales productos cayeron; las de enlatados de pescado disminuyeron 10,8%; las de manufacturas de metales, incluyendo vehículos 49,4%; las de manufacturas de cuero, plástico y caucho 36,3%; las de químicos y fármacos 35,6%; elaborados de banano 2,0%; y, las de los demás productos en conjunto 12,1%. Cuadro No.3.
- Importaciones
Las importaciones totales hasta mayo de 2020 cayeron 23,8% comparadas con el mismo período de 2019; las de productos no petroleros cayeron 21,2% en tanto que las de derivados de petróleo cayeron 34,5%. Entre las no petroleras las de bienes de capital registraron la mayor caída con 31,4%; seguidas de las de bienes de consumo con 22,0% y materia primas 13,1%.
Considerando solo los meses de la emergencia (marzo a mayo) la caída de las importaciones totales se incrementa a 34,1%, siendo mayor la caída de combustibles y lubricantes con 56,2%; seguida de bienes de capital con 42,0%; bienes de consumo 33,9% y las materias primas mantienen más o menos el mismo ritmo de disminución con 13,7%. Cuadro No. 4.
Las importaciones destinadas a la industria en los meses marzo a mayo cayeron 21,7% con respecto al mismo período de 2019, de ellas las que corresponden a materias primas disminuyeron 14,5% y las de bienes de capital 31,5%. Cuadro No. 5
Las importaciones de materias primas para las principales ramas de la industria manufacturera durante la emergencia sanitaria (marzo a mayo) tuvieron el siguiente desempeño al compararlas con el mismo periodo de 2019:
- Las destinadas a la industria de productos metálicos cayó 29,6% al pasar de US$ 240 millones en el período marzo a mayo de 2019 a US$ 169 millones en el mismo periodo de 2020.
- Las de materias primas para la elaboración de productos de la industria química y sus derivados cayeron 3,4% al pasar de US$ 290 millones a US$ 280 millones.
- Las importaciones de materias primas para la elaboración de productos plásticos (de las partidas 3.901 a 3.915) cayó 12,1% al pasar de US$157 millones a US$ 138 millones.
- Las importaciones de materias primas para la industria farmacéutica se incrementaron 11,5% al pasar de US$ 76 millones a US$ 85 millones.
- Las importaciones de materias primas para la industria alimenticia se incrementaron 20,1% al pasar de US$ 143 millones a US$ 172 millones.
Las importaciones de materias primas para la industria papelera (capítulos 47 y 48) cayeron 9,5% al pasar de US$ 84 millones a US$ 76 millones.
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